Founder & Campaign Director, 20's Plenty for Us

Rod King 259sc

Rod King

Rod King's activity stream


  • published What are the benefits to the Welsh economy? in FAQs 2023-02-26 14:09:46 +0000

    What are the benefits to the Welsh economy?

    Will the 20mph limits slow down the Welsh economy by adding time to motor journeys?

    Will this be offset by savings in road casualties?

    Are there other benefits such as reduced noise, pollution and fuel consumption?

    A:
    • Whilst there may be some increase in journey times these are minimal and for most journeys will be less than 2 minutes.
    • Yes, there will be substantial benefits in reducing road casualties .
    • There will be other benefits from reduced noise, pollution and fuel consumption, as well as positive public health outcomes.

    The Welsh Government has published a Regulatory Impact Assesment (RIA) report which sought to forecast the benefits and disbenefits from the 20mph policy. This was made available to Members of Senedd.

    The primary factors in this are the potential for increased journey times, fewer casualties and better public health outcomes. On balance we believe that there will be large benefits to the Welsh economy, but the difficult part is not only in estimating the outcome, but also in the quantifying that as a benefit or disbenefit. This difficulty was referenced in the RIA, which concluded that an "indicative forecast" of the Net Present Value of benefits over 30 years were between +£1,870mn (excluding journey time) and -£4,480m (including journey time). There were a number of caveats to this which explained the range of forecasts. The figures shown are in £ millions as a Net Present Value over 30 years with positive figures being a benefit and negative a disbenefit. All following information is from the report except that asterisked and indented. :-

    Direct Capital Costs (-£32.5m)

    These were predictable and all funding is provided by the Welsh Government. Although local authorities are implementing the changes there is no net cost to them.

    Increase in Journey Times (between 0 and -£6,350m)

    Three quarters of the disbenefits are associated with trips with time impacts of less than 2 minutes. In addition, only 26% of these trips were associated with business and 74% were either commuting or leisure. With average journey time increases being less than a minute and most journeys affected by less than 2 minutes there is great uncertainty about the opportunity cost of that time, especially with such a high proportion not being business mileage. And the methodology dictated for use in such a calculation was required to use the formula developed for major road construction rather than minor changes to short journeys in urban settings. It also does not allow any reduction on cost for commuting/leisure compared to business. For these reasons the RIA decided to include the NPV excluding journey time which then resulted in the +£1,870 net economic gain. 

    Road Casualty Reduction (between +£479m and +£2,533m)

    These were calculated by using the forecast reduction in speed and applying factor which predicted the reduction in casualties. This varied from a low of preventing 1 fatality, 62 serious and 198 slight injuries pa annum to a high of preventing 15 fatalities, 130 serious and 299 slight injuries per annum. When using a standard DfT formula for the value of casualty prevention this amounted to the NPV of the resulting benefit being between £479 and £2,533m. 

    * A separate report by the Transport Research Institute of Edinburgh Napier University predicted a value of the prevention of casualties at £92m per annum. This would confirm the higher benefit from the RIA. Note that much of this would benefit the NHS in reduced A & E resources required to attend to road casualties..

    Increase in Cycling and Walking (between +190m and +£948m)

    The RIA has based the benefits from walking and cycling on 4-6 extra cycling trips per person per year and 1-2 extra walking trips per year attributable to the 20mph policy by 2040. This mainly comprises the benefits to public health from the active travel increases associated with a calmer and safer urban and village streets.

    * Separately we note that the annual cost of obesity in Wales of £3,000m per annum so even a 2% reduction from increased active travel would result in a £60m gain per annum.

    Reduced emissions (between +£2m and +£8m)

    A small environmental improvement resulting from lower non-exhaust particulate (PM2 and PM10) emissions can be expected from the policy. Lower driving speeds should result in lower tyre, road and brake abrasion reducing particulate pollution in communities. We note that this benefit is somewhat but not entirely offset by increased exhaust emissions of Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) from fossil fuel powered vehicles at lower speeds.

    * Note that more recent research is showing substantial reductions in emissions when in a congested stop/start environment. In such circumstance the repeated acceleration up to a speed limit has a far greater impact that steady-state driving. This has shown that when congestion, junctions, lights, crossing, require stopping at a frequency of 220m then a 25% reduction in emissions would result. This would result in a large increase in emission reduction and benefit to the above figures.

    Other benefits not taken into account

    The RIA notes that there are several benefits that have not been taken into account. These include :-

    • Improved functioning of the road network / smoother traffic flow / reduced congestion as a consequence of slower speeds. For example, the ability of vehicles to move in and out of parking bays or change lanes more efficiently at lower speeds.
    • While many benefits from increased active travel have been included such as reduced mortality and decongestion. Broader benefits such as the day to day benefit of increased physical and mental health from increased exercise remain unquantified. Furthermore if increased levels of active travel disproportionally remove car trips that affect stop-start
      congestion during peak periods such as school runs , the decongestion benefits from increased active travel could be larger.
    • Noise: it was considered that the evidence base was not conclusive enough to form a monetary judgment for the policy. However, we note that the Welsh Government has
      recently commissioned additional research and analysis of likely noise-related impacts of the policy, to be performed pre- and post-policy implementation, to gain a better
      understanding of the relevant impacts.
    • Increased retail spending, resulting from improved access (particularly amongst those with mobility challenges). At this point in time however good quantitative evidence on which to calibrate this benefit remains lacking.
    • Increased property values (and the resultant land value uplift) are also not included as a credible methodology could not be assembled to monetise these benefits given available data and pre-existing studies, and available resources.
    • Once the 20mph policy has been fully implemented, it is expected that a wider range of data will become available. This will enable an analysis of the policy’s broader impacts,
      including in relation to the aspects outlined above. (The proposed monitoring of the policy’s impacts post-implementation is discussed in section 7 of this RIA).

    * In addition, we identified several other benefits that were not included :-

    • The same research on urban emissions also calculated that under the same congested conditions drivers would save up to 30% of their fuel usage (up to 10p per mile) where a 20mph limit was in operation compared to a 30mph limit. 
    • In just the same way that casualties will be reduced because of reduced speeds, so will non-injury collisions. This will be a benefit that will be reflected in both reduced costs of such collisions to drivers involved and their insurers.
    • Many other initiatives to support active travel become cheaper and more cost-effective in a 20mph environment compared to 30mph.
    • Tourism can be boosted by visitors from other countries where they drive on the right feeling much more comfortable in a slower speed environment.

    20's Plenty believe that the benefits from the 20mph policy are large and will benefit the Welsh economy.

    Rod King MBE, Founder and Campaign Director commented :-

    "In particular the idea that it will "cost" the Welsh economy £4.5BN is predicated on outdated UK treasury orthodoxy in accounting. There is no "cost to the economy" of either setting off for work or school a minute earlier or arriving home a minute later. For this to be true then lingering over a coffee whilst shopping or stopping to look in a shop window whilst walking to work would equally impact the economy. It is clear "bunkum". Wales and its' economy will gain hugely from the adoption of its national 20mph default."

     

     


  • commented on What is the democratic mandate for a national 20mph default limit? 2023-07-30 20:00:02 +0100
    The 15th July 2020 Senedd vote was supported by 7 of the 11 Conservative Members of Senedd these included:
    Angela Burns
    David Melding
    Janet Finch-Saunders
    Laura Jones
    Nicholas Ramsay
    Paul Davies (Conservative Leader)
    Russell George

    A single Welsh Conservative (Darren Millar) voted against. Two Welsh Conservatives abstained ( Mark Isherwood and Suzy Davies). A single Welsh Conservative (Andrew Davies) did not vote.

    The motion which included calling on the government to make a Statutory Instrument for a national 20mph default was passed by 45 to 6.

  • signed up on Sign up 2023-02-17 16:24:19 +0000

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  • published Will the 20mph limits be enforced? in FAQs 2023-02-20 21:24:51 +0000

    Will the 20mph limits be enforced?

    A:

    20mph limits can be enforced just like any other speed limit. Gosafe and Police in Wales are supporting the new national 20mph speed limit. It will have many ways of enforcing 20mph limits including its Community Speedwatch program, police officers in cars or using speed detection devices, and static cameras. This will also include opportunities for driver education rather than fines. Whilst enforcement is a key element of maximising compliance experience from other parts of the country shows that adopting 20mph limits reduces speeds significantly without having to overly rely on enforcement. 


  • Can Welsh Local Authorities set a 30mph limit on main roads?

    I understand that the national limit for streets in most cities, towns and villages will change from 30mph to 20mph. Can local authorities set exceptions where the speed limit will remain at 30mph? 

    A:

    Yes, the national default limit for "restricted" roads (those with lighting at frequent intervals) will change from 30mph to 20mph on September 17th 2023. And there is "guidance" from Welsh Government regarding what factors could justify keeping the speed limit at 30mph. The primary consideration is whether there are significant numbers of pedestrians and cyclists travelling along or across the roads. This is all detailed in the Welsh Government Exceptions Guidance. We have created this flowchart diagram to show you how this works :-

    It is our opinion that even if the road is used by pedestrians and cyclists then a well segregated cycle and pedestrian path with controlled crossings may provide a basis for setting a higher speed limit than 20mph. However any "robust and evidenced application of local factors" would need to take into account other pertinent characteristics such as road width, traffic volumes and presence of housing, community buildings, schools, etc. But note that the "guidance" is only "guidance". The need to fully take into account the needs of vulnerable road users was part of the previous guidance on setting local speed limits. 


    The needs of vulnerable road users must be fully taken into account in order to further encourage their mobility and improve their safety. Setting appropriate speed limits is a particularly important element in urban safety management, with significant benefits for pedestrians and cyclists. Similarly as vehicle speeds are generally higher on rural roads, collision severity and the risk to vulnerable road users are also greater. In both situations
    speed management strategies should seek to protect local community life.

    The absolute responsibility and authority for setting a different limit for a street from the national speed limit lies with the local highway authority. They are well placed to consider the needs of all road users including those who are most vulnerable and the need to preserve local community life. Local authorities in Wales are setting exceptions to the national 20mph limit for some main roads and these may be viewed at the Welsh Government website.

    Note that it is important to recognise that its is often "main" roads which pose the biggest risk to vulnerable road users due to the volume of interactions. Hence lowering the speed will disproportionately reduce the likelihood and outcome of any collisions. 

     

    Update 23rd April 2024 

    Please also see our FAQ on expected Welsh Government guidance changes


  • published FAQs in Wales 2023-02-16 22:22:20 +0000

  • published Briefings in Wales 2023-11-08 14:42:31 +0000

  • TfL data shows huge benefit for pedestrians from 20mph on arterial roads in London

    New data from Transport for London echoes what 20’s Plenty have been finding in recent 20mph implementations - that speed reductions on major and faster roads are resulting in substantial reductions in speeds and casualties for vulnerable road user casualties. TfL has just published research into the impact of the introduction of 20mph limits across a range of sites on the roads that it controls (typically London's arterial roads - the "Red Routes") which shows that, after speed limits were lowered, collisions involving a vulnerable road user have decreased by 36% (from 453 to 290), while collisions resulting in death or serious injury have decreased by 25% (from 94 to 71). The number of collisions involving people walking have decreased by 63% (from 124 to 46).

    TfL_Casualty_reductions_20mph_roads.png

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  • 30% Urban Fuel Savings Justify a Wide Area 20mph Speed Limit Policy

    Reducing peak road speeds where people are saves energy and significant cash. New research from Future Transport shows fuel efficiency peaks with speed capped at 20mph. This “real life” model factors in stop/start urban traffic. Less acceleration saves precious resources as over twice as much energy is required to get to 30mph. Drivers get up to 10p per mile fuel saving without trips taking longer. That's a 30% saving in urban fuel costs.

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  • published Wales 2023-02-26 14:16:04 +0000

    Diolch am 20/Thanks for 20

    Diolcham20.png

     

    Welcome to our web pages about the new national 20mph default speed limit for cities, towns and villages in Wales, which became effective on 17th September 2023.

    Wales has joined the many countries where 20mph or 30km/h limits are becoming the norm for urban and village streets. Unlike the street-by-street approach in the rest of the UK, Wales is taking the smart route of setting 20mph as the national urban/village default with exceptions decided by local authorities. It has all the benefits of a national and consistent standard combined with local flexibility.

    The Welsh Government have dedicated 20mph pages on their website.

     

     

    If you have suggestions as to how the information can be improved then please email [email protected].

     


  • published 20's Plenty Progress in 2022 in Briefings 2022-12-31 13:42:00 +0000

    20's Plenty Progress in 2022

    It’s been a year of great progress through 2022 for 20’s Plenty. That has been not only in campaigning but in new implementations. And the global adoption of 30km/h and 20mph limits is increasing alongside the UK. Please follow the links to more information and inspiration.

     

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  • Speed limits of 20mph in built-up areas will become the “default” for drivers across Britain in a matter of years, the architect of the policy in Scotland has said.

    Mark Ruskell, who proposed a Bill at Holyrood to make 20mph the standard on residential streets in Scotland in 2019, said a “generational shift” was already happening. In an interview with i-news, the Scottish Green MSP said the UK had reached a “nationwide tipping point” on the issue and that he believed most residential streets would soon be 20mph.
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  • published 20's Plenty celebrates 15 years in Blogs 2022-11-17 08:56:16 +0000

    20's Plenty celebrates 15 years

    20's Plenty for Us celebrates its 15 year anniversary after forming in 2007.

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  • published Belfast 20mph report in Blogs 2022-11-15 20:05:48 +0000

    Belfast 20mph should be city-wide like Edinburgh rather than city-centre

    A new report highlights that how implementing 20mph over a small area in Belfast where speeds are already below 20mph is far inferior to the established experience from city-wide schemes that reduce speed and casualties significantly. Hence this report gives little insight into the success of setting 20mph as an urban/village norm other than showing how not to implement it.

    The implementation in Belfast was on just 76 streets in the city-centre on which the average vehicle speed was well below 20mph. Of these 76 streets, 27 were already fully or partially pedestrianised. At the same time other travel initiatives included the introduction of a rapid transit system and extension of the city-centre bus lane provision. There was also little community engagement or marketing of the 20mph scheme.

    Such an isolated and small implementation which keeps 30mph as a norm on all the other streets in the centre was always going to result in little change and this report confirms this. In fact other reports which compared Belfast with Edinburgh and its city-wide 20mph scheme show just how more effective 20mph schemes are when implemented city-wide.

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  • Oxford Conference Round Up 2022

    20’s Plenty 13th Annual Conference delegates hear how 20mph is becoming the new normal

    Over 100 delegates from across the UK heard how 20mph is becoming the new normal where people live, work and play.  Co-hosted by Landor Links and Oxfordshire County Council, the event was chaired by Debra Sims (Past President Chartered Institution of Highways and Transportation). Academics, industry experts and campaigners shared news of national progress, local wins and the latest research on how wide area 20mph limits improve quality of life and public health.

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  • published Oxford Conference VoxPops in 20's Plenty Conference 2022 2022-10-24 12:17:19 +0100

    Oxford Conference VoxPops

    During the conference intervals we gave presenters and delegates the opportunity to say a few words on what they thought would be the benefits of 20mph limits as a norm. These provide a great insight into how 20mph as a default urban and village limit is becoming the norm across the UK.

    Presenters

     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     

    Delegates

     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     


  • published Spain cuts casualties by 20% in Blogs 2022-10-06 15:01:34 +0100

    Spain cuts casualties by 20%

    Spain's Minister of the Interior has presented the consolidated data on road accidents for 2021 in Toledo to value the work carried out by municipalities in terms of road safety

    In 2021, 417 people died on urban roads, 102 fewer fatalities than in 2019, a reduction in mortality of 20 percent in a single year unprecedented in the historical series

    Grande-Marlaska: “When explaining this significant reduction in road mortality in our cities last year, I want to remember that on May 11, 2021, the speed limit of only 30 kilometers per hour on city streets came into effect. one lane in each direction of travel

    The decrease in deaths in cities has been reflected in vulnerable users with a 34% reduction in cyclists, 31% in deaths over 64 years of age, 26% in pedestrians and 17% in motorcyclists

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  • commented on Critique of Buckley anti-20mph petition 2023-03-04 15:43:09 +0000
    Earlier this week I drove through Buckley up the infamous Liverpool Rd. I was pleased to see how calm the traffic was. In several cases cars or vans were in free-flowing conditions and keeping to the limit. And as I drove along there was not a hint of tail-gaiting or anyone driving illegally by trying to overtake me or anyone else.

    This echoes what has been found elsewhere, that whilst there will be a few noisy objectors, most members of the public will recognise the new speed limit and get used to it, so providing a better environment for all with only a minimal change to journey times. Well done Buckley residents.

  • published Wales 20mph Order in Briefings 2022-07-05 10:12:50 +0100

    Wales 20mph Order

    The Restricted Roads (20 mph Speed Limit) (Wales) Order 2022 - Questions and Answers

    What is it?

    This order requires approval by Senedd Cymru (Welsh Government) and changes the speed limit for restricted roads (those with lighting at intervals of not more than 200yds) from 30mph to 20mph. This order would become effective 17th September 2023. It was debated in Senedd on 12th July 2022 and passed 39 votes to 15.

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  • A Grant Shapps presidency of the International Transport Forum of the OECD is an opportunity to save millions of lives

    The presidency of the ITF[0] rotates amongst its 64 member countries and is being transferred to UK near the start of the UN Decade of Action on Road Safety 2021-2030. This is a unique opportunity for UK Secretary of State, Grant Shapps to provide leadership and #CommitToAct by reducing the national urban speed limit to 20mph, a proven road safety initiative that could save millions of lives if adopted worldwide. This is a key call of the ITF and others to set 30km/h and 20mph limits wherever motors mix with people.

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