Update 20 April 2024

We now have the results of an FOI request for the daily signatures with Welsh postcodes. This shows that 97% of the signatures were gathered between 13th and 30th September 2023. During this period signs were still being installed and this would have meant many 20mph roads had 30mph signage and 30mph roads were assumed to be 20mph. In fact after the first two weeks of the 20mph limit being set daily signatures dropped hugely as shown by this graph of daily signings. In February 2024 the average number of daily signatures added was just 16. This is hardly a sign of rising anger but merely rising boredom by those that weren't triggered into signing in the first few weeks.

We also analysed the split of signatures by constituency. This was done by measuring the share of signatures in each constituency and comparing it with the share of electors. ie ((share of sigs/share of electors) -1). This shows that North Wales was over-represented in the petition by 21% compared to the national average. This is not surprising with Buckley being the N. Wales pilot area which was implemented with zero exceptions. Interestingly North West Wales in Arfon and Ynys Môn were under-represented at -45% and -9%.

The 432,875 signatures reported are lower than the 14th March results due to unverified postcodes being removed. The total represents around 14% of the population in Wales, in line with other opinion surveys on 20mph - around 1 in 7 people oppose with 2 in 3 people supporting.       

Update - 14 March 2024

It is now 5 months since we reported below. The petition seems to have run out of steam and when it closed on 13/03/24 the final count of Welsh signatories shows that it increased by less than 2% in the last 5 months with just 7422 new signings. 98% of signatories were made before the signage changes had been completed. During this time many drivers would have experienced 30mph signs within 20mph areas.

The monthly protests turning up outside Senedd have comprised about 20 people and at the close of the petition yesterday the usual people and numbers were there, being addressed by Natasha Asghar MS, whose late father was one of the original proposers of a national 20mph default as an Assembly Member in 2018. This is not a sign of "rising anger" but more boredom at opposition politicians attempting to weaponise road safety and community live-ability by creating a divisive culture war for the sake of a few votes

The fact is that  Wales and the Welsh people are getting on with life at 20 in villages, town and cities across the country. Its not perfect and there are some 20 roads which could be set at 30 and some 30 roads that could be set at 20. But all of this is in the hands of local highway authorities. A national 20mph default urban/village limit has made Welsh communities better places to live, walk, learn, cycle, shop and work, whether you are a resident or a tourist.  Well done Wales.

Note, final signatory numbers were:-

Here is what we wrote one month into the petition in October 02023

20mph limits for residential roads and where people are has always gained majority support. This has been legislated for in Wales over a year ago and implemented on Sept 17th 2023 with a national urban/village 20mph default with local authorities able to set exceptions. This aligns Wales with global best practice for motor vehicle speed where they mix with vulnerable road users. We have already documented the democratic route to legislation of this initiative that was launched 5 years ago with the support of Conservative, Labour, Plaid Cymru and Lib-Dem parties in Wales.

Yet we have a petition against the national default 20mph limit that is attracting a large number of signatures and shares.

This FAQ answer puts the petition into perspective and comes to the conclusion that whilst the number of signatures is significant, it is neither surprising nor is it representative of mainstream public opinion. 

The basis of Senedd petitions is that you can make a statement and ask people to sign with just a few clicks and entering their email address and postcode. Once signed the petition is easily shared to social media with a couple more clicks. If the petition reaches 10,000 signatures then the Petitions Committee will consider it for debate in Senedd.

The validity of a petition depends on what it states and the number of signatures. But what if the statement of the petition is false? How much credibility should be given to the results regardless of the number of signatures?

Lets look at the petition in question:

The petition was created on 13th September 2023 and is collecting signatures until 13th March 2024.

The rules for petitions are quite specific. It is our opinion that this petition breaks several of the rules, namely :-

• It contains potentially false or potentially defamatory statements;
• It contains language which is offensive, intemperate, or provocative. This not only includes obvious profanities, swear words and insults, but any language which a reasonable person would regard as offensive;

We break the petition down into its elements with a critique of each and how it could contravene  the petition rules.

The petition statement fails to meet any test of whether it is accurate or factual. It misleads potential signatories with anecdotes and comments which are false. It is difficult to see how Members of Sened could take this petition seriously.

Next steps

Once the petition reached 10,000 signatures, the Petitions Committee is able to ask the petitioner if they wish to close the petition and the committee can then make a decision as to whether this should be debated in Senedd. In this case we understand that the petitioner has requested that the petition run its full course and be available till March 2024.

Are the signature numbers significant?

To date (11/10/23) it has attracted 461,014 signatures. While this is, at first sight, a lot - indeed a a record - for a Senedd petition, it is not unexpected, particularly taking into account how the debate has been highly politicised on social media.

Of the 461,014 signatures, 27,139 were from outside Wales, including Canada (28), Falkland Islands, Ireland (50), USA (59), Northern Ireland (158), Scotland (984) and England (25,512). So how does this Welsh count of 433,865 signatures compare with the Welsh adult population? In 2019 the population was 3.136 million. Of these 500,000 were children leaving a net 2.636 million adults. Hence 16% of the adult population of Wales have signed the petition. We suggest that there are three reasons for signing:

A. Those who do not support 20mph for residential areas

What we know from successive UK-wide surveys on transport attitudes (see page 10) conducted by the UK Government is that 71% of people support 20mph for residential streets whilst 14% oppose it.  Hence it is reasonable to suggest that those 14% would be inclined to sign a "click and share" petition when a 20mph has been implemented as a "default" for built-up areas across Wales. This contingent would make up 369,040 (14% of 2.636 million) and would comprise 85% of the petition signatures received so far.

B. Those who do not support the current government.

A large number of the petition 'shares' on social media are politically motivated. They refer to the change specifically as "blanket" rather than "default". We know from the  2021 Senedd election results that a total of 289,802 people voted for the Welsh Conservatives, plus a further 8,586 for UKIP. Both of these parties now oppose the national 20mph default. While some may be included in A above, there will be motivation from many supporters of these parties to sign a petition that opposes what the Welsh Government has done regardless of the benefits to the population as a whole. Examples of partisan promotion of the petition are :

Note that whilst we are neither condoning or criticising the use of social media in such a manner it is a very clear example of the politicisation and division that is being promoted and specifically targeted at this petition.

C. Those who support 20mph but are unhappy with the way it has been implemented.

The national change involved many thousands of roads and signage, including both boundary signs and signs within communities. It would always have been impossible to make all of these changes co-incidentally without huge additional resources in local authorities. It was inevitable and unavoidable that some signage would be contradictory and result in drivers not being fully aware of the limit on certain roads. This in turn led to many drivers incorrectly keeping to 20mph on roads which had been excepted at 30mph. This would have led to many criticising the implementation of the 20mph default whilst at the same time agreeing with its intention.  We note that the police in Wales have said that they will focus on educating drivers, rather than issuing speeding tickets during the initial implementation phase. 

Conclusion

Given the scale and complexity of this change, the numbers signing the petition are not surprising. The scale of misinformation and falsehoods both within and surrounding the petition statement, together with the politicising of the issue devalues it to the extent that it is meaningless as a basis for considering public opinion. The petition tells us what is already known, that many drivers would prefer to drive faster than what is appropriate, safe or considerate for many of the under-protected on community streets - the very people who will benefit most from the national default 20mph limit. It could be said that this actually endorses the need for the speed limit change.

It provides a snapshot of driver opposition in a two week period in September 23 whilst signage was being changed. It reflects one side of public opinion on an issue that has majority support and minority, but significant and noisy, opposition. Given the total population of Wales and the petition statement flaws the number of signatures is neither surprising or indicative of a need to change policy. 

We believe that Welsh Government and Local Authorities should be congratulated for delivering this life-enhancing and life-preserving 20mph initiative for the people of Wales which does have wide public support. Members of Senedd should recognise the flaws, misinformation and lack of evidence in this petition when considering whether it is worthy of debate in Senedd.