Wales Casualties 1st 18 months

The 20mph default speed limit on built-up roads in Wales has led to 882 (25%) fewer casualties in the first 18 months. If the 20mph default had not been made, casualties would have been one third higher!

Lower than expected vehicle damage claims enabled esure Insurance Group and others to reduce premiums for Welsh drivers. This has enabled esure to commit to reducing prices in other places in the UK for those customers living within newly created 20mph areas.

Data from the Welsh government shows how the 20mph default speed limit on built-up roads has meant 882 (25%) fewer casualties in the first 18 months[1]. In other words, if the default speed limit had not changed to 20mph, casualties would have been one third higher!

Esure Insurance group has witnessed lower than expected vehicle damage claims. This has enabled the firm, as well as other insurance companies to reduce premiums for Welsh drivers. The positive outcome in Wales enabled esure to commit to reducing prices for customers within 3 months of identifying a new 20mph area in the rest of the UK[2].

The data is clear evidence of a sustained reduction in risk and danger on Welsh roads:

The fall in casualties of 25% on 20/30mph roads compares with a decrease of 2% on roads with higher speed limits (Fig 1).
Data is consistent across all quarters: the drop in casualties on 20/30mph roads ranged from 18% to 24% compared with the equivalent quarter[3] (Fig 2).
The marked downturn after September 2023 on 20/30mph roads – 5x the previous average annual reduction and larger than during COVID – was not seen on other Welsh roads (Fig 3).
All four police forces saw casualty reductions on 20/30mph roads, ranging from nearly 50% in North Wales to 8% in Gwent. Within North Wales, which saw the largest reduction in speed limits (94% of roads changed from 30mph to 20mph), all Highway Authorities saw the largest casualty reductions - ranging up to 60% (Fig 4).
20 of the 22 Highway Authorities saw casualties decrease on 20/30mph roads; on other roads, half saw an increase (Fig 5).
Reductions of 25% are in line with those predicted by lower mean speeds (2.4mph[4] overall and 4.3mph on faster roads[5]).
Esure Insurance group report vehicle damage claims 20% lower than expected.[6]