If we look at the few countries that currently use mph for speed limits then certainly Wales will be the first to do so. However many countries using km/h, where the equivalent is 30km/h, have this as a norm for most urban/village roads. Spain has taken a step similar to Wales when it set a national 30km/h limit for any urban/village roads with a lane in each direction to 30km/h in 2021. This is reduced to 20km/h (12mph) if there is no pavement.

Wales will be the first nation within the UK to set a national 20mph limit, however Scotland plans for 20mph to be the norm by 2025.

Already 18 million people in England live in local authorities who have rejected 30mph as an urban/village norm and have set 20mph for most such roads. This includes all the inner London boroughs, most of the large cities and more rural counties such as Lancashire and Cornwall. See our full list of 20mph places.

• Whilst there may be some increase in journey times these are minimal and for most journeys will be less than 2 minutes.
• Yes, there will be substantial benefits in reducing road casualties .
• There will be other benefits from reduced noise, pollution and fuel consumption, as well as positive public health outcomes.

The Welsh Government has published a Regulatory Impact Assesment (RIA) report which sought to forecast the benefits and disbenefits from the 20mph policy. This was made available to Members of Senedd.

The primary factors in this are the potential for increased journey times, fewer casualties and better public health outcomes. On balance we believe that there will be large benefits to the Welsh economy, but the difficult part is not only in estimating the outcome, but also in the quantifying that as a benefit or disbenefit. This difficulty was referenced in the RIA, which concluded that an "indicative forecast" of the Net Present Value of benefits over 30 years were between +£1,870mn (excluding journey time) and -£4,480m (including journey time). There were a number of caveats to this which explained the range of forecasts. The figures shown are in £ millions as a Net Present Value over 30 years with positive figures being a benefit and negative a disbenefit. All following information is from the report except that asterisked and indented. :-

Direct Capital Costs (-£32.5m)

These were predictable and all funding is provided by the Welsh Government. Although local authorities are implementing the changes there is no net cost to them.

Increase in Journey Times (between 0 and -£6,350m)

Three quarters of the disbenefits are associated with trips with time impacts of less than 2 minutes. In addition, only 26% of these trips were associated with business and 74% were either commuting or leisure. With average journey time increases being less than a minute and most journeys affected by less than 2 minutes there is great uncertainty about the opportunity cost of that time, especially with such a high proportion not being business mileage. And the methodology dictated for use in such a calculation was required to use the formula developed for major road construction rather than minor changes to short journeys in urban settings. It also does not allow any reduction on cost for commuting/leisure compared to business. For these reasons the RIA decided to include the NPV excluding journey time which then resulted in the +£1,870m net economic gain. 

Road Casualty Reduction (between +£479m and +£2,533m)

These were calculated by using the forecast reduction in speed and applying factor which predicted the reduction in casualties. This varied from a low of preventing 1 fatality, 62 serious and 198 slight injuries pa annum to a high of preventing 15 fatalities, 130 serious and 299 slight injuries per annum. When using a standard DfT formula for the value of casualty prevention this amounted to the NPV of the resulting benefit being between £479 and £2,533m. 

* A separate report by the Transport Research Institute of Edinburgh Napier University predicted a value of the prevention of casualties at £92m per annum. This would confirm the higher benefit from the RIA. Note that much of this would benefit the NHS in reduced A & E resources required to attend to road casualties..

Increase in Cycling and Walking (between +190m and +£948m)

The RIA has based the benefits from walking and cycling on 4-6 extra cycling trips per person per year and 1-2 extra walking trips per year attributable to the 20mph policy by 2040. This mainly comprises the benefits to public health from the active travel increases associated with a calmer and safer urban and village streets.

* Separately we note that the annual cost of obesity in Wales of £3,000m per annum so even a 2% reduction from increased active travel would result in a £60m gain per annum.

Reduced emissions (between +£2m and +£8m)

A small environmental improvement resulting from lower non-exhaust particulate (PM2 and PM10) emissions can be expected from the policy. Lower driving speeds should result in lower tyre, road and brake abrasion reducing particulate pollution in communities. We note that this benefit is somewhat but not entirely offset by increased exhaust emissions of Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) from fossil fuel powered vehicles at lower speeds.

* Note that more recent research is showing substantial reductions in emissions when in a congested stop/start environment. In such circumstance the repeated acceleration up to a speed limit has a far greater impact that steady-state driving. This has shown that when congestion, junctions, lights, crossing, require stopping at a frequency of 220m then a 25% reduction in emissions would result. This would result in a large increase in emission reduction and benefit to the above figures.

Other benefits not taken into account

The RIA notes that there are several benefits that have not been taken into account. These include :-

• Improved functioning of the road network / smoother traffic flow / reduced congestion as a consequence of slower speeds. For example, the ability of vehicles to move in and out of parking bays or change lanes more efficiently at lower speeds.
• While many benefits from increased active travel have been included such as reduced mortality and decongestion. Broader benefits such as the day to day benefit of increased physical and mental health from increased exercise remain unquantified. Furthermore if increased levels of active travel disproportionally remove car trips that affect stop-start
  congestion during peak periods such as school runs , the decongestion benefits from increased active travel could be larger.
• Noise: it was considered that the evidence base was not conclusive enough to form a monetary judgment for the policy. However, we note that the Welsh Government has
  recently commissioned additional research and analysis of likely noise-related impacts of the policy, to be performed pre- and post-policy implementation, to gain a better
  understanding of the relevant impacts.
• Increased retail spending, resulting from improved access (particularly amongst those with mobility challenges). At this point in time however good quantitative evidence on which to calibrate this benefit remains lacking.
• Increased property values (and the resultant land value uplift) are also not included as a credible methodology could not be assembled to monetise these benefits given available data and pre-existing studies, and available resources.
• Once the 20mph policy has been fully implemented, it is expected that a wider range of data will become available. This will enable an analysis of the policy’s broader impacts,
  including in relation to the aspects outlined above. (The proposed monitoring of the policy’s impacts post-implementation is discussed in section 7 of this RIA).

* In addition, we identified several other benefits that were not included :-

• The same research on urban emissions also calculated that under the same congested conditions drivers would save up to 30% of their fuel usage (up to 10p per mile) where a 20mph limit was in operation compared to a 30mph limit. 
• In just the same way that casualties will be reduced because of reduced speeds, so will non-injury collisions. This will be a benefit that will be reflected in both reduced costs of such collisions to drivers involved and their insurers.
• Many other initiatives to support active travel become cheaper and more cost-effective in a 20mph environment compared to 30mph.
• Tourism can be boosted by visitors from other countries where they drive on the right feeling much more comfortable in a slower speed environment.

Subsequent to all of this, after the first year of implementation, insurance companies are reporting a 20% reduction in damage claims with a subsequent lowering of insurance premiums by £45pa for the average driver. With 2m cars registered in Wales this amounts to £2,700m over 30 years.

Taking all of these into account it is clear that the default 20mph limit provides a benefit to the Welsh economy. 

Rod King MBE, Founder and Campaign Director commented :-

"In particular the idea that it will "cost" the Welsh economy £4.5BN is predicated on outdated UK treasury orthodoxy in accounting. There is no "cost to the economy" of either setting off for work or school a minute earlier or arriving home a minute later. For this to be true then lingering over a coffee whilst shopping or stopping to look in a shop window whilst walking to work would equally impact the economy. It is clear "bunkum". Wales and its' economy will gain hugely from the adoption of its national 20mph default."

The national 20mph limit has had a 5-year history of wide support within the Senedd.

Since 1934, Welsh roads with lighting have had a national speed limit set by the Westminster government of 30mph. However, local Highway Authorities (usually city or county councils) have had the power and responsibility to set individual roads at different speeds (either lower or higher) by means of a Traffic Regulation Order. National governments provide guidance on the setting of such local variations on the 30mph national limit. The Welsh guidance dates from 2009 in the form of the "Setting Local Speed Limits in Wales" document.  This was modelled on the previous DfT guidance from 2006. In both of these 20mph speed limits were only advised for "individual roads or for a small network of roads".

Since 2006 many local authorities in England had been going beyond this guidance and setting 20mph limits for most roads in their jurisdiction with positive results. In 2013 the guidance for England was changed to include the implementation of 20mph limits over a large number of roads. This accelerated the adoption of 20mph as a norm in many English local authorities, and there was increasing recognition that setting 20mph as a norm in urban and village locations was beneficial. This was further enhanced in 2016 when changes to UK-wide signage regulations enabled 20mph repeater signs and roundels to be used as "traffic calming devices" within expanded 20mph zones. 

Some local authorities in England were calling on UK government to change the national limit from what they considered an unfit-for-purpose 30mph to 20mph and enable the local authority to set higher limits as exceptions on particular roads. 

At this time in Wales, there had been no change in the guidance on setting local speed limits from the Welsh Government and in Wales 20mph roads were expensive to implement (due to requiring physical calming) and hence relatively uncommon. However the Wales Act 2017 was enacted in 2018 by the current Conservative government and devolved the setting of national speed limits for restricted (lit) roads to the Welsh ministers with certain provisos on consulting with the UK Secretary of State and approved by a resolution in the National Assembly for Wales. This altered the Road Traffic Act 1984 to accommodate this.

It was in May 2018 that 20's Plenty were invited to discuss with Welsh political leaders and institutions specifically on how this Act enabled a far "smarter" and more cost-effective way to set 20mph limits by making them the national limit for restricted roads as a default and allowing local authorities to set higher exceptions. This included meetings with Andrew RT Davies AM (Welsh Conservatives), Vaughan Gething AM (Welsh Labour) and Leanne Wood AM (Plaid Cymru).  

Subsequent to this and discussions within and across parties in September 2018 a debate was held in Senedd tabled by Welsh Conservative members with cross party support from Welsh Labour, Plaid Cymru, Lib-Dems and Independents to "introduce legislation so that a 20mph speed limit becomes the standard speed limit in Welsh residential areas".

The following month Conservative AM David Melding and Labour AM John Griffiths MS spoke at the 20's Plenty conference held in Cardiff on Oct 2nd 2018. Both were advocating a national 20mph default within the conference. This specifically discussed setting 20mph as a national default limit and had wide political and institutional support.

This led to the Deputy Minister for Economy and Transport for the Welsh Government setting up a "Welsh 20mph Task Force Group" in May 2019 to "identify the outcomes which would be expected from changing the default speed limit for restricted roads in Wales to 20mph, and the practical actions needed to implement this change in law". This was chaired by Phil Jones and included a wide range of participants including police, local authorities, emergency service, government officers and NGOs, as well as motoring, public transport and freight organisations. The "Final Report" was published in July 2020 and included the case for change and 20 recommendations on how to implement such a change. On 15th July 2020 the Senedd duly debated the findings of the report in a plenary session and passed motion NDM7355 supporting the Welsh Government's intention to set a national 20mph limit for restricted roads subject to subsequent approval by resolution of Senedd.

This motion supported by 85% of the Members of Senedd showed a clear democratic and cross-party support for the proposal. It was particularly pleasing to see the wide support from Welsh Conservative Members of Senedd.

Listen to Janet Finch-Saunders AM speaking in favour of the recommendations in the report in the debate in Senedd.

Subsequent to this the intention to set such a 20mph national limit was specifically included in the 2021 election manifestos of two of the major Welsh political parties. These parties received 60.2% of the constituency votes and  56.9% of regional votes, with a combined majority of 43 out of 60 Senedd seats.

Based on the cross-party support in the 2020 debate and the inclusion of the national 20mph initiative as a key manifesto policy, the Welsh Government went on to propose legislation in the form of a Statutory Instrument to set a national 20mph limit for restricted roads in Wales and "The Restricted Roads (20mph Speed Limit) Order 2022 was debated (NDM8054) and passed in a plenary session in Senedd on 12th July 2022. It was passed by a majority 39 votes (72%) for and 15 (28%) against.

This legislation sets an effective date of 17th September 2023 for the national 30mph limit for restricted roads to change to 20mph. The Welsh Government has issued guidance to assist local authorities in setting exceptions. Note that the authority and responsibility to set local exceptions to a national speed lies exclusively with the local Highway Authority. The national guidance is simply guidance and not a mandatory rule. How local authorities interpret or adhere to that guidance is their responsibility rather than that of the national government.

Hence, the setting of a national 20mph limit for restricted roads has had consistent support over 5 years, since the devolution of such powers to the Senedd by the UK government.  It has had cross-party support for all the development work in the initiative and also been clearly publicised in the election manifestos of the two major political parties who comprise a majority in Senedd. It has had extensive consideration of the expected outcomes and method for implementation. It has received all the necessary requirements for legislation including two affirmative votes in the Senedd and the necessary consultation with the UK Secretary of State.

It has been through all appropriate and necessary democratic processes for setting such national legislation.